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Vegas Q&A: What Are Odds Of Winning Progressive Slots?

UPDATED: 4:31 p.m. EDT May 14, 2004

Question: How much competition do you have in trying to win one of those progressive slot machine jackpots like Megabucks? Is it just a few machines in one casino or is it machines all over Las Vegas and does it matter statistically?

Manny in Houston

Ask Rick

Answer: It totally depends on the progressive you're playing.

Megabucks is a statewide progressive jackpot, so all of the Megabucks machines in every casino across Nevada is hooked into the same system. Others like this are Wheel of Fortune and Quarter Mania progressives, although it's important to note that they are only tied to machines in Nevada and not similar ones in other states.

I'm not good at figuring out statistical odds on stuff like this since technically your odds of hitting the jackpot are the same no matter what machine you play at, however it does stand to reason that the more machines in play on one jackpot reduces your chances of the jackpot hitting on the specific machine you're playing.

I like to use the cards in a hat analogy when trying to figure out stuff like this. If you've got a 52-card deck in a hat in front of you and your goal is to pull out the ace of spades your chances of doing that are 1 in 52. If there are a dozen hats in front of you, all with 52 cards in them, and you can try to pull the ace of spades out of any one of them your odds are still going to be 1 in 52.

But if there are a two people competing to be the first to draw the ace of spades out of any of the dozen hats then your chances of doing it first are reduced. The more people and the more hats you add, the less your chances of being first.

There are many progressive jackpot machines in Las Vegas casinos and not all of them are tied to machines throughout the state. Some are specific to a certain casino and include only 10 or 20 machines – maybe less.

There are even individual jackpot machines where the progressive is not tied to any other machine in the casino. The Blazing 7's are the most popular and omnipresent version of this.

Of course it usually holds true that the fewer machines tied to the jackpot the lower the jackpot amount. On the Blazing 7's you usually don't see them get much past $1,200 while the Megabucks jackpot is probably close to or over $9 million by the time you read this.

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